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Mike,

I fear you´re right.
That´s why I mentioned the British regular army units recruited in Northern Ireland. They already did shoot prisoners despite some military training and military discipline. I suspect the "UVF militia units" (without real military training and discipline) will be even worse.

Your three part scenario seems to look very likely.
I would only add something to your point 3.
If an UVF militia unit meets an organized (disciplined) IRA unit (maybe supported by some German troops) the UVF casualties probably will be much higher than for a regular British army unit. Which will of course led to more of your point 1 and 2. Furious UVF militia taking their anger out at some Irish Catholic village...
And maybe add a point 4?
How will the UVF militia treat German prisoners? Allies of the Papist traitors?

And as for how long it takes to arrive at that point? Not very long I suspect.
a) Call up the UVF "militia" (How will they be armed? Is there a surplus of British army rifles and ammunition? Or will they have to use their own guns?)
b) Transport and deployment
c) A few days after that your point 1 (and maybe 2 depending on where they are deployed) should start
d) Wait a few days for news to reach the German / IRA side

Totally uneducated guess...
2 weeks?
A few days to call them up and plan on deployment. Actual transport and deployment of the first (smaller) units a few days more? Platoon or company sized units to guard the "lines of communication"? Call it a week all in all?
The first "incidents" in the second week. Add a few days for the news to spread. End of the second week for it to start?

Some IRA units probably will go nuts then.
In other units German advisers and officers (like Rommel?) will try to convince them to not mindlessly attack the UVF but win the war (and independence) first. Maybe even tell them that if you don´t take prisoners (and treat them right) every single enemy will fight to the end. Leading to unnecessary higher casualties on the IRA side.

I don´t think the Germans would like that. They will probably press the IRA leaders to stop it. While knowing that they can´t stop it at the local level.
And as I said, couple the UK government announcement to shoot all traitors with reports of atrocities committed by UVF militia and the US government (and maybe a few others) might face some additional domestic pressure...

CJvR,

I totally agree with your post.
But I don´t think the German officers, even Francois, on their own will recognize that. I can´t be sure of course but I don´t think he / they are spending much time on the political situation. It´s a purely military "operation" for them. Add help and support to the civilian Irish population as long as it doesn´t endanger military operations. Understandably of course since the situation still is dangerous.

And I doubt that the General staff officers planning it spend much time thinking about "politics". Unfortunately I think they just believed that the political situation would take care of itself once the British were defeated. From what happened I don´t believe the German military spend much time discussing the Irish operation with German politicians or diplomats either.

And I agree that Pearse "should stop playing soldier and get on with politics".
My thinking is that maybe Sir Roger Casement - now arriving in Ireland - might help with that. As a diplomat / politician agitating for Irish Independence I do believe that he will press for a second provisional Irish government soon. If only because he might be appalled that there is no Irish person / government after the Dublin defeat capable of talking with the Germans in Ireland at "eye level". He should understand that the Irish need some form of leadership / provisional government to be taken seriously by the Germans. Their concerns heard and considered.