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There were a couple of threads on the Bob Hennemans and the BB boards about a possible USN/HSF matchup in 1917. Really all the fellow wanted was a technical matchup and a bathtub fight. Of course, it spun out of control on both boards, and I don't think the actual question ever got answered. This, and the book I recently finished (Thomas Fleming's "The Illusion of Victory: America in World War I") got me to thinking. Fleming speaks briefly about Joseph Caillaux, a Frenchmen who didn't think the French could win and wanted an economic alliance with Germany. Caillaux felt France had been betrayed by the Brits, and a union between Germany, France,Spain and Italy (the last four being the "Latin League") was a natural thing. Also, this would lead to another war with the UK. The other allies of Germany, the Ottomans and Austro-Hungary, aren't mentioned, nor is Bulgaria.
To get to that point, obviously the issue of French reparations would have to be low enough to prevent a French desire for revenge. It also means that Dunkerque happens earlier, with Belgium being overwhelmed. I really cannot see a total RN defeat, nor the UK surrendering. What I DO foresee is an armistice, and a situation very similiar to the Napoleonic Wars, with Britain standing nearly alone for some years.
Here is where it gets interesting. KWII felt the Monroe Doctrine was unimportant, and Germany had the right to do whatever the hell they wanted in Latin and Central America. The US, regardless of which president is in power, isn't going to allow this. This means the US can expect to fight a fleet action against the German/Latin League fleet.
With the French posessions in the Caribbean, I expect the MN to slowly reinforce this area initially, with the HSF to follow on later. The HSF is what will trigger the action. This also means there is NO WNT in 1921!
I'll post more when I get back later today. I'd appreciate your thoughts on this.



Part II

This also calls into question Japan. The Japanese aren't going to give up what they took, but Germany isn't in a position to take it back due to the lack of bases in the area. The Anglo Japanese Accords are still in effect, so if Germany wants to fight they again have to deal with the RN. However, the presence of French colonies complicates things a bit. The HSF could base from these, such as in French Indochina. Would the British, the Australians and New Zealanders allow the Japanese to take French Indochina? Or would they take it? Either way, war would be the result.
Russia is another area of possible confrontation. Will the Reds take over in 1917? Will the Allies still go into Vladivostok? Probably, if for no other reason than to prevent the loss to the Reds or Germans of the enormous amount of supplies still there.
In Italy, I can foresee the Austrians and Germans occupying them or at least imposing some very heavy sanctions. The Greeks get off pretty lightly, as they didn't willingly aid the Entente.
In the Near East, Britain will most likely loose the access to much of the oil.
In Africa, I don't really know how the issue of the colonies will shake out. Would the Germans insist upon taking some from the French and Belgians? IMO, yes. Lettow Von Vorbeck will be the hero he was, and the Germans will reclaim their colonies.
The US has a massive naval and military build up in this time. Shipyards are being built and enlarged, with merchant designs such as the Hog Islanders, and the American Shipbuilding yards Blockade Runner design ready to put into production. The US was making the French 75 and Schneider 155, along with the 18pdr. The Moisin Nagant was being built for the Russians in large numbers, along with the US P17 Enfield and 03 Springfield. Colt "Potato Digger" MGs were available for production, along with the newer .30 M1917 and soon, the BAR. All in all, just a couple of years will see the US sitting pretty secure against any CP attacks. This is in addition to the burgeoning aircraft industry (admittedly only the Curtiss flying boats were much good at this time) and the nascent armor of the Renaultesque Ford 3 Tonner and the M1917. Also, Walter Christie is making amphibious tanks in the early 1920,s.

Another thing, will the US either attempt to buy the French Caribbean territiories and maybe French Guyana? I think the French might sell them, if the CP reparations are heavy enough. If they don't either through French Nationalism or German insistence they retain them, or cede them to the Germans, will the US invade and take them? Maybe not immediately, but if any hint of the HSF or German Army shows up, all bets are off. In this case, I think the US will set up airfields on many islands in the Caribean, and patrol the passages between the islands intensely with aircraft, airships and patrol vessels.

What about South America? They traded extensively with the UK, the US, but also with Europe. How will they react?