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TomB1	Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III		Lead	[-]
Posts: 2929 05/05/09 14:42:48 Administrator	Tags : None Posted below for the usual aesthetic reasons.
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Roller007		#21	[url]	[-]
Posts: 39 05/09/09 14:13:52	Excellent Tom. Some Comments : 1) Spain declaring war on Britain will kill the UK's Steel industry with 60% of her Iron ore coming from Spain. 2) If Spain were to take Gibraltar, she would stop the flow of oil to the UK, at a very bad time. 3) Could Italy stay neutral and order its coal from the US now while selling to Germany and Spain?
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Syphon1		#22	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16 05/09/09 15:22:08	Very interesting update Tom. The non merchant sailing will be starting to hurt Italy further supporting the neutral or pro CP factions. Diverting coal from Italy will hurt Italian pride and that could have very bad side effects. Serbia is nearly dead just waiting on the last rights to be given and then those entente forces in the balkans are in for some serious trouble. If Italy joins the CP they will be lost PDQ. Rumania is the big question mark now. I believe that there is no way in hell they'll jump in the entente boat so that give the Germans an excellent food boost. As I've stated earlier the longer OU goes on the cascade effect of the loss of merchant movement will hurt the Entente exponentially. If GB redirects merchant from Italy to France risk Italy honouring its treaty obligations to the CP. If they don't then France losses the ability to continue fighting the war. Russia already on the back foot is probably getting nothing. GB is essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul. Unfortunately Pablo, Ivan and Giovanni might not like the results and make the best of a bad situation.. One further thing when is the war cabinet going to inform the King that a potential invasion fleet has or is leaving France? His Majesties reaction and suggestions will make it very hard on any British Government to make suitable decision when they know and any reinforcement of Ireland or any invasion of GB will cost them their jobs and possible much more. Then again the destruction of the BEF will be very bad news should they be cut off and destroyed which would probably force belgium to make peace on the best terms while opening France up for a knock out blow. OU is a disaster for the Entente and is causing a cascade of failures that could shatter then Entente and friends. Can't wait for the next update. We satisfy our endless needs And justify our bloody deeds In the name of destiny And in the name of God David
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moltke1	End of May 20	#23	[url]	[-]
Posts: 155 05/10/09 03:16:33	Dear Tom, WOW. Many very important Information in this posting. So Spain is the next likely candidate. What about their cavalry? Can you give us an OOB please? King/Prime minister is one of the key scenes in this. If Spain enters, I doubt that Italy would stay sitting on the fence. Coal shortage would be no argument in a short war, which would be over before autumn comes. The French territories of Tunis, Corsica, Nizza and Haute Savoie would be too tempting not to pick. Italy could declare war on France but omit England, at least at the beginning. Greece could be tempted with Northern Epirus, which is 'really' Southern Albania. Could Romenia resist to grab Bessarabia? An d Sweden to liberate Finland? My oh my. More comments later. Uwe
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TomB1	Spain and Italy	#24	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2940 05/10/09 07:41:54 Administrator	As for oil the Ottomans have already shut down Persian oil. The Indonesian oil is at risk if and when Gibraltar falls (not the easiest nut to crack though) but I would expect Dutch tankers to be allowed through. Besides petrol Britain is now very dependent on a specific high toluene oil from Borneo for their toluene as the Siemens plant which made toluene from coal got smashed by 1st SG. I would see some increase in Italian imports of coal from the US to make up part of the shortfall in addition to increased imports from Germany which at this time still could afford to do so. One problem with using the US is some price gouging ere long.
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TomB1	Italy	#25	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2941 05/10/09 07:50:36 Administrator	Diverting colliers bound for Italy to French ports is not per se going to result is Italian entry. In fact in the short run it is going to grind home Italy's dependence on Britiish coal which is a big reason not to join the CP.
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Roller007		#26	[url]	[-]
Posts: 40 05/10/09 17:18:16	I was refering to the oil being transported from the Dutch holdings ( which went through the Med. ). In 1915 the British were receiving oil from America, Persia and from the Dutch. Shortages of Oilers in the RN had a large chunk of the oil coming to Britain in Neutral Hulls but much was still being transported in British ones. In 1915 the oil supply was run with about a 1 month reserve, any delay in shipments would cause the RN to begin to shutdown. Destroyers and Cruisers being effected the most. With the, unknown to the German's, Blockade and shutting down of English Imports and exports this reserve must be getting quite low. Add to that the more movements of the GF and her escorts along with the whole RN in general compared to 1915 usage and the RN will soon be looking at there oil stocks and going umm, help, I think. That might become the scandal that Breaks the back of the English Government btw if it got out. Russ / Roller007
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TomB1	Oil	#27	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2942 05/11/09 10:25:47 Administrator	I have read that the British civilian economy was the most heavily motorized in the world at that time (US was second). As with the French coal shortage I would see an attempt made to give the military usage priority over the civilian with an impact on the economy. And within the military to give the navy priority over the army (which had some degree of motorization. The ASC and the ambulance corps were partially motorized and many divisions had a few double decker buses in service. The BEF is already seriously short on petrol in TTL. Tom
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TomB1	Spain	#28	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2943 05/11/09 17:15:04 Administrator	There are some interesting and relevant facts about Spain in the 1911 Encyclopedia Brittanica http://www.1911encyclopedia.org/Spain I would note that as late as the Spanish American War Spain fielded 20 infantry divisions. I am lacking a detailed Spanish ORBAT so far. I have SA War data and Spanish Civil War data but very little in between. Italy is a bit complicated. I am very tempted to do a scene next post that will shed some light on that and some other issues. Tom
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miketr		#29	[url]	[-]
Posts: 567 05/12/09 06:08:25	This article might be of interest to read on the Spanish Army. http://www.history.army.mil/documents/spanam/WS-SpARmy.htm Not an OOB but some nuggets of info. Michael Just my $0.02 worth
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TomB1	Spanish Army	#30	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2944 05/13/09 09:05:45 Administrator	Thanks again, Mike, this looks useful.
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Detlef		#31	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2 05/15/09 12:57:01	TomB1 wrote: Hi Tom, Welcome to the Board as for your interesting points Thanks for your nice words. 1. Italy will be importing more German coal. There is an upper limit to this however due to rail capacity. Thanks for the link. That was my argument about more German-Austria-Hungarian cooperation. The main (anthracite) coal mining centers in Germany were the Ruhr region and Silesia. With lignite coal mining in the Aachen-Cologne region and Northern Saxony. The main Austria-Hungarian coal mining regions were in Bohemia and Moravia (Doubrava, Kladno, Plzen and Ostrava). The main Austria-Hungarian industrial centers were Bohemia and Austria (Vienna) itself. You can transport coal by river too. German Silesia coal mining region -> river Oder -> Oder-Havel canal -> Havel river-> Elbe river -> Prague German Ruhr coal mining region -> river Rhein -> up-river to the town of Karlsruhe or up-river then using the Neckar river to Stuttgart -> rail to the town of Augsburg or Regensburg -> river Danube to Vienna You can transport coal entirely by river from German Silesia to Austrian Prague (Skoda). Likewise from the Ruhr region to Vienna needing only rail from Stuttgart/Karlsruhe to Augsburg/Regensburg. Silesia to Prague is definitely doable. Ruhr region to Vienna, I´ll have to look at existing railroads between Stuttgart and Regensburg (my prefered route). Anyway, you can substitute river boats for rail for at least part of the way. I assume here that Austria-Hungary does have a railway system centered on Vienna? If so, then transporting Bohemian coal to Italy might be easier than transporting German coal to Italy. Shorter distances mean higher transport capacity. Mind you, I´m not saying that Austria-Hungary alone could meet the coal demands of Italy. But part of the demand might be met by transporting Austrian coal to Trieste. And from there by ship to Italy. Some German coal (probably from the Ruhr region) would still be needed. I´m simply saying that you shouldn´t disregard river transport. 2. My understanding is that Spain was not quite self sufficient in coal (does anyone else know for sure?) for own needs in this period. Close enough that the loss of British coal not be crippling. Portugal BTW is very dependent on imported coal. From what I´ve read, the Spanish did import some coal back then. At least the main ports before 1914 did mention coal as an import. I was just guessing that selling a little coal (a few ships worth) to Italy could justify getting some arms as payment back in return. Kind of like, hide the transfer of weapons from Italy to Spain in plain sight? A justification for British and French politicians not to get worried? 3. In 1915 Britain needs Spanish iron ore more than Spain needs British coal. Now that is worrisome for the British. 4. Yeah and it would go hand in hand with the German strategy of tying up neutral flagged merchantmen. As for financing the largest US banker is JP Morgan Jr an ardent Anglophile but at #2 is Kuhn & Loeb which prefers the CP (in OTL they eventually jumped on the bus and made war loans to the Entente as well) One limitation here is the US merchant marine, not counting coasters, is still quite small. As other commenters showed, the US merchant marine is more than large enough to actually make it worth. Not to mention that both the Spanish and the Italians do have a merchant marine too. Given the current blockade by the German navy bases in Ireland, I´d say a few of them would head for the USA.
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borys68		#32	[url]	[-]
Posts: 527 05/17/09 03:25:36	Over time the German and A-H railroad systems broke down. Or were not far from it. Overuse, abuse, inadequate maintanance and replacement. You need 1 million tons of coal a month to keep Italy going. All of it must go by rail, over the already stretched A-H system. Getting that coal over the Alps is an even greater strain - you need either small trains, or two locos at the most mountaineous parts of the route. Check one of the POperation Heinrich threads, and the link to the Axis Forum on this subject. Everything will work danndy if men and material are taken off other areas, and allocated to track maintance and upgrading, buidling more locos and rolling stock, etc. I'm not saying that it can be done, but, to use a Russian idiom involving a moneky and a short blanket - "cover the face, bare the ass, cover the ass, bare the face". Borys
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TomB1	The Italian Coal Problem	#33	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2945 05/17/09 09:20:47 Administrator	I was wondering when you would weigh in on this, one of your favorite topix Now if we assume that Spanish coal needs are at most half of Italian needs and we compare that to domestic production it seems that at least 75% of their needs are being met domestically. Last Edited By: TomB1 05/17/09 09:23:42. Edited 1 time.
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TomB1	Borys to the rescue	#34	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2946 05/17/09 09:32:40 Administrator	I was waiting for Borys to weigh in on one of his favorite topics. As for importing American coal, even though their merchant marine is a bit bigger than I had originally thought I am still having trouble seeing it amounting to more than 4,000 tons a day on a sustained basis. For one thing the round trip from say Philadelphia to Rome looks to be almost double what it is Bristol to Rome.
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borys68		#35	[url]	[-]
Posts: 528 05/17/09 22:22:07	Ahoj! Yes, "Rhur coal to Italy" is one of the many bees in my bonnet But, Your Honour, I was provoked ... Borys
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Detlef	Coal transport	#36	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3 05/18/09 15:25:18	Hi borys68, Over time the German and A-H railroad systems broke down. Or were not far from it. Overuse, abuse, inadequate maintenance and replacement. That makes sense. You need 1 million tons of coal a month to keep Italy going. All of it must go by rail, over the already stretched A-H system. That is a lot of coal per month. In fact, several hundreds of (foreign) ships per month. Where did they get this coal in our time line? 1 million tons per month means 200 ships transporting 5.000 tons of coal per month? Given the fact that a 5.000 ton ship is a really large ship in 1914, we´re probably talking about a lot more that 200 ships per month? Getting that coal over the Alps is an even greater strain - you need either small trains, or two locos at the most mountainous parts of the route. I´d say it´s pretty much impossible. Just researched Austrian and Swiss railroads before WW1 (and unless I overlooked something) there are just 3 railroads connecting Italy with Germany / Austria-Hungary (2 Austrian railroads to Trieste and 1 railroad connecting Germany to Italy via Switzerland- Gotthard-railway). Germany can get coal to to Basel (Switzerland) and Prague (Austria-Hungary) using river boats but after that it´s up to the trains. And according to the Internet a train with one loco can transport at best 200 tons across the Alpes. Using 2 locos, we´ll get to 500 tons and 25 km/h. That would mean several thousand trains per month. Won´t work. In fact, a history of the Swiss railway companies mentioned that they started to electrify their railroads during WW1. Because supply of coal was somewhat erratic. They didn´t mention if it was just a problem to transport coal or if it was a real problem of not enough coal available? Anyway, if Germany couldn´t transport enough coal to Switzerland, I don´t quite know how Germany could supply Italy. Mind you, closer cooperation between Germany and Austria-Hungary probably would help a lot. Still, I don´t think that the Central Powers could transport 1 million tons of coal per month to Italy right now. Unless of course, Italy, Spain and the Balkans enter the war siding with the Central Powers. Should that happen, Germany and A-H should be able to upgrade the railroads somewhat. The sheer amount of "new" manpower probably would allow the Central Powers to divert some "experts" to " track maintenance and upgrading, building more locos and rolling stock,".
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borys68		#37	[url]	[-]
Posts: 529 05/19/09 07:12:59	Ahoj! See this thread where I learnt about the issue. As to "where doid the coal come from?" - the answer is UK ... http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=132969&hilit=italy Borys
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borys68		#38	[url]	[-]
Posts: 531 05/21/09 21:32:07	Thinking of it, 500-800,000 tonnes per month should do the trick. Still, a major burden on the railways. Whenerver possible such stuff was sent by canal or freighter for a reason ... Borys
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W D Martin	Spanish Info	#39	[url]	[-]
Posts: 225 05/28/09 22:00:27	Good chapters Tom. Read this and the succeeding one. Taking a break from class work, thought I'd catch up with the story. According to the 1912 edition of the "Official Digest of the World", Spain has a wartime army, after mobilization, of 220,000. The 1907 law had it as 80,000 peacetime, enlarged to 115,432 by the 1911 law for peacetime. Divided into infantry, cavalry, engineer and artillery battalions. Colonies are the Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Spanish Sahara and Spanish Guinea. Fisheries are extensive, with 14,000 boats of varying size employing 71,500 men. The navy has 16,700 men and 9000 Marines. Minerals mined are: antimony anthracite arsenic mercury sulphur zinc copper tin phosphorite iron iron pyrites coal lignite manganese silver lead argentiniferous lead salt wolfram If you want the quantities of any ask. Largest trading partner is the UK, followed by France, then the US, then Germany. Later, Bill "If there are no proofs against you, it`s not your merit, but our misconduct" Dzerzhinsky
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Roller007		#40	[url]	[-]
Posts: 41 05/29/09 16:35:04	Could you use the Danube and cut across one of the flatter valleys down Yugoslavia to Trieste or Zara taking the load off of the main line to Venice? Keeping an export of coal going would prevent the coal shortages and issues that cropped up later in the war.
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Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/05/09 14:42:48	TomB1
Part III Post	05/05/09 14:44:52	TomB1
Author's Comments	05/05/09 14:58:48	TomB1
End of May 20	05/10/09 03:16:33	moltke1
Spain	05/11/09 17:15:04	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/12/09 06:08:25	miketr
Spanish Army	05/13/09 09:05:45	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/06/09 02:07:04	borys68
Slightly reckless	05/06/09 04:44:16	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/06/09 05:09:36	CJvR
Espana: the nation and the ship	05/06/09 06:46:44	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/06/09 10:01:15	miketr
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/06/09 11:03:20	CJvR
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/06/09 11:11:11	miketr
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/06/09 11:24:56	CJvR
Portugal and Italy	05/06/09 11:04:51	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/06/09 11:30:06	CJvR
Colliers	05/06/09 21:46:27	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/07/09 10:58:26	CJvR
basically agree	05/07/09 18:54:46	TomB1
Portuguese Politics May 1915	05/07/09 19:35:12	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/07/09 13:35:23	Detlef
Welcome	05/07/09 19:18:36	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/07/09 20:12:59	miketr
Thanx	05/08/09 06:22:33	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/15/09 12:57:01	Detlef
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/17/09 03:25:36	borys68
The Italian Coal Problem	05/17/09 09:20:47	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/17/09 22:22:07	borys68
Coal transport	05/18/09 15:25:18	Detlef
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/19/09 07:12:59	borys68
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/21/09 21:32:07	borys68
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/29/09 16:35:04	Roller007
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/30/09 07:59:44	borys68
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/30/09 17:28:09	Roller007
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	06/02/09 00:57:22	borys68
Austrian railways	06/03/09 12:24:54	Detlef
Borys to the rescue	05/17/09 09:32:40	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/09/09 14:13:52	Roller007
Spain and Italy	05/10/09 07:41:54	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/10/09 17:18:16	Roller007
Oil	05/11/09 10:25:47	TomB1
Re: Operation Unicorn May 20 Part III	05/09/09 15:22:08	Syphon1
Italy	05/10/09 07:50:36	TomB1
Spanish Info	05/28/09 22:00:27	W D Martin
Thanks Bill	06/01/09 20:34:49	TomB1